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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1402
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Saturday, 29 April, 2017 - 00:57:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

The labour party is un-electabable due to Mr Corbyn and Ms Abbot.

The Liberal Dems are ther same Due to Nick Clegg

UKIP has no manifesto.

That leaves the Tories

In Scotland the SNP are going to lose big time because the Wee Krankie fixation with Scottish independence and joining the EU.

I suspect that the labour party will win in Scotland
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michael vass
Grand Master
Username: mikebentleyturbo2

Post Number: 310
Registered: 7-2015
Posted on Saturday, 29 April, 2017 - 02:06:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Hi Bob
Just about what everybody I speak to thinks too.
Mike
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1403
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Saturday, 29 April, 2017 - 03:12:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

I didnt vote either way on the EU membership because I( didnt know enough. But this forthcoming election I will vote.

I notice that pensions are back burner and I hope pensions will be discussed because my wife and and I have been ripped off to the tune of 160 per week plus increases for 6 years a total of 50k. Unlikely labour brought the new regs in so are

Imagine Dianne Abbot as Home Sec or Foreign minister. She is a distorter of truth and a racist. Her face is enough to start WW3.

Theresa May is turning into a good PM

Ireland is interesting because I heard of a suggestion that Eire joins up back with the UK and NI.
The Irish are honorary UK citizens due to declaring allegiance to the crown and the 1923 free movement act which allows citizens of the British Isles to roam at will,work and live where you want. We have Irish passport holders in the armed forces and police.
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michael vass
Grand Master
Username: mikebentleyturbo2

Post Number: 311
Registered: 7-2015
Posted on Saturday, 29 April, 2017 - 07:16:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Know what you mean Bob my Mrs has lost 35000 in pension grrr
Mike
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Mark Aldridge
Grand Master
Username: mark_aldridge

Post Number: 426
Registered: 10-2008
Posted on Saturday, 29 April, 2017 - 09:51:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

So has mine
Mark
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John Beech
Grand Master
Username: jbeech

Post Number: 364
Registered: 10-2016
Posted on Saturday, 29 April, 2017 - 20:50:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Related to pensions, I wonder if you guys realize the effect ZIRP has had on them? Here's the rub. Actuaries can predict with uncanny accuracy the age at which people will die (hang with me, we're going into the weeds on this). The recent-ish problem for them (actuaries) are two-fold. First, due to advances in medicine, people are living longer and longer. Not so much middle age white people whom due to economic despair and the ravages of opioids are dying younger (as a cohort), but the retired cohort is definitely living longer (I'll come back to this). Add to this, another factor, which are the ravages of Alzheimer's. Less than on a personal level (where it's terrible and expensive) but on a national economic level where this is a hugely expensive diseases (the costs to care for these people is astronomical - and the money has to come from somewhere). The 'somewhere' from whence the money has to come thus far are, a) deficits and, b) currency debasement (money printing).

The Crown, due to being able to print its currency, is somewhat shielded but definitely not immune and inflation will eventually rear its head as it did in the late 70s and early 80s (in my opinion). Pity the Greeks who cannot devaluate and try to understand the despair they must feel because they are being forced by the Germans, basically held by scruff of their economic-necks, into an ongoing depression (e.g. worse than a mere recession). And there's no end in sight for them. Believe me, this will not end well and the UK is being smart to get the Hell out of that union while the getting is good. In my opinion, no matter what pain the Germans inflict during the divorce, it will be scot-free in comparison.

Second, the people who manage pensions are hired and fired based on the rates of return they can generate. An unfortunate byproduct of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) is that instead of the planned for 8% return, the funds are returning less that 2% (to include dividends being reinvested). This leads to the unfortunate situation pensioners are presently experiencing. And it will get worse. Why? Principally because of the demise of the defined benefit contribution. I cannot speak for your pension scheme but in the USA companies are shedding this obligation and pushing the responsibility of retirement funding onto the shoulders of the individual who is generally ill equipped to make long term financial decisions. E.g. people being people prefer immediate gratification versus one that's delayed (think shiny new car today versus money with which to buy food in 40 years). However, because of how pensions function (in effect they're a giant Ponzi scheme) the younger cohort is paying on the Government-promise of a payout in their future with the monies actually being used to pay for the retired cohort, today.

Unfortunately, this younger cohort is not making as much money as older generations did. Why not? In part it's due to large scale EU-sourced immigrants (think Polish plumbers because they will definitely work for cheaper wages). An unfortunate byproduct of lower wages is a reduced tax base, e.g. to contribute to pensions today whilst still consuming their share of resources. However, another player in the reduced-wages-for-younger-workers game is beginning to have an ever increasing role and it is technology.

Technology? Think, for example, in terms of the effect Uber has had on livelihood of taxi drivers. What will be the effect of self-driving cars on them, as well? And collision repair centers who will do a lot less business (ditto the insurance business) because automated cars will have fewer accidents. The knock on effect is relentless because manufacturers will have to make fewer wings and panels because fewer will be crunched in accidents also. And it gets worse because reduced unit volumes for fenders means higher unit costs, etc.

And this effect on labor began long ago. For example, whom amongst us remembers 20 years back when desktop printing was a big deal? Suddenly, anyone with a Macintosh computer and a laser printer could print fliers and brochures. This put some skilled tradesmen out of work because there was less demand for Linotype machines and the paper they printed on. More sophisticated color-laser printers made it yet worse. Thus, type setters, printers, mechanics, those who made the machines, who made the inks, etc. were put out of work - in droves - and replaced by cheap machines.

Automakers have robots these days too. They're doing nearly all the welding, sealing, and painting such that a plant goes from 1000 employees to less than 100. And the trades are where we get the middle class! Trades involving machinists began declining in the 1980s with the advent of NC (numerical control) machines using paper tapes. It got worse in the 90s with CNC (computer numerical control) as lathes and mills became automated. This meant one man no longer ran one machine but instead, tended three or four. And since a skilled G-code programmer actually set the machine up to run a part, the guy tending the machine was chiefly responsible for keeping it fed with material, e.g. a less skilled and thus, lower wage job. Small wonder Labor has been decimated in the UK since the poor bastards aren't earning a decent living in the first place an longer, eh? These poor bastards lost the war to the Tories back when outsourcing and the opening of China gathered steam in the 90s. Dead men walking! Ditto the economic powerhouse Germans who around the same time incorporated East Germans into their labor market and pressured West German wages (said effect continues today). Add to it, Polish workers, and other eastern Europeans who due to Schengen have free movement.

And now we add the Muslims as yet another source of cheap labor, this time young and generally unskilled. My God, I understand German angst about the Jews, but what in Hell was Angela Merkel thinking? And in France, the banlieues are stuffed with unemployed people who won't integrate and believe me, big trouble is brewing (most especially if National Front wins in a couple weeks). Meanwhile, back to England, I understand there are parts of London where the population is 50% Muslim and the cops won't go - is this really true? This can't end well.

Anyway, the effects of technology are relentless and the net effect is the young cohort is getting the pointed end of the stick so that the older cohort can live in comparative luxury. Don't shoot me for making the observation but please do try and be prepared for the time when they realize they're getting the shaft as well (e.g. revolt at the ballot box). And meanwhile, we in the USA are not immune and while these economic policies (ZIRP and unfettered immigration) have been wonderful for shielding the banks from their foolish excesses and companies in seek of greater profits, an unfortunate byproduct is they have also left the populace, e.g. the retired populace that depends on interest income to augment their retirement, and b) the younger populace entering their prime earning years . . . utterly prostrate!

For example, one million USD$ once returned a tidy 6%, or USD$60,000 per annum. Today, the return is more like 1% meaning you need six times as much to augment your income. In short, savers are being punished in an unprecedented manner in order to save the banks. To learn a bit more about why it's happening, what's coming, and hopefully how to prepare yourself, I advise you read this brief article by John Mauldin.

Part 4: Disappearing Pensions
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/angst-in-america-part-4-disappearing-pensions

What isn't discussed in public - yet - but is as obvious as a monster zit on your nose is how (pound sterling) will let citizens of the UK escape comparatively unscathed from the bloodbath that is the (Euro) when Greece finally goes under (the Germans are getting mighty tired of subsidizing them). And the crisis that is not being spoken about (out loud) are the Italian banks. They are in desperate straights and when they begin to fall by the wayside (and they will), the European monetary union is quite likely to implode. Or severely tested as monetary union is going to require giving up more sovereign control to Brussels. That that won't go down very well is a certainty!

As an American, acutely aware we have a near USD$20T debt, plus another USD$60T in unfunded debt obligations (think pensions) and wondering, "When will the doo-doo will hit the fan?", I observe the going ons across the pond with grave concern. My point being, Ms. May has called for elections at the perfect time. First, in one fell swoop she de-fangs the corrupt Luxembourgian politician Jean-Claude Junker. Without question he planned to pressure her in the upcoming negotiations (due to her lack of election), e.g. by right of having no election mandate. However, by calling for these now she has set a fox loose amongst the hens and devastated his clumsy plans - all whilst strengthening her (UK) hand. Brilliantly played. Second, J. Corbyn is a strange duck. But labor (lower-case 'l', e.g. the ordinary people who drink a pint with him) love him. Nevertheless, he (and the Labor Party) is a non-issue - agreed. Third, I hope you're right about SNP. N. Sturgeon's insistence upon another independence referendum is rocking the boat in the run up to negotiations and it seriously weakens T. May's hand - enormously. The best thing that could happen to the UK is for Scotland's Nicola and her cronies to lose. So if what you say is true and SNP is weakening, this is very good for your negotiating position - very good indeed! This because (as an interested observer, but one who has no skin in the game), it's my opinion SNP would be wise to shut up about another referendum (for at least 10 years). After all, what does a decade matter in the grand scheme of things? Especially if you reflect back to how long ago the Scottish financial impudence in the Darien of Panama took place (e.g. the proximate cause for the Scotland joining the union in the first place).

Anyway, this screed is no longer as brief as I set out to write but you'd be wise to prepare for more turmoil when it comes to pensions because this isn't over.
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1404
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Saturday, 29 April, 2017 - 22:41:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

The EU and the Euro is falling apart and the poorer countries in the EU are going to get hit hard. Junker is trying to get an EU army to enforce his will.

Scotland will never be able to join the EU on her own because of Catalonia. Catalonia is trying to leave Spain and join the EU. Spain will veto any application for Scotland to join the EU. Because if Scotland gets away with it its a template for Catalonia to follow.

Scotland has no currency and they are responsible for 10% of the UK national debt.

Sturgeon's assumes that another referendum will go her way. I suspect now that the Scots have heard her insults to the English people, it will go badly for Wee Krankie.

Ruth Davidson is the Tory leader in Scotland and could surprise us, she is very capable and is a firm supporter of the Union and PM mrs May.

The UK joined the EU in 1974 originally its was a trade agreement only but since then it has seriously mission crept in to a central government in Brussels, with an army to enforce its will.

BMW's biggest European market is the UK. BMW want to sell cars and we want to buy them.
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John Beech
Grand Master
Username: jbeech

Post Number: 366
Registered: 10-2016
Posted on Monday, 01 May, 2017 - 12:00:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Robert Noel, I was aware of the Catalonia issue with regard to Scotland. Spain also has serious problems because the Basque (in the form of ETA) have long wanted their independence (and with their own language have a reasonable claim in my opinion). Thing is, that would drag France into the fray because the Basque have historically spread into that nation's mountainous southern border. And if that can of worms is ever opened Italy is at risk too because the industrialized northern would split from the south - it wouldn't be pretty.

Anyway, regarding the poorer relations of Europe, e.g Romania, Hungary, et al. what with the UK's contribution going away the Poles have already raised an outcry. Ditto the Dutch who feel tapped out economically and will strongly resist contributing more money. This leaves the Germans as the rich kids on the block and Angela Merkel undoubtedly has strong reservations about a hand being further slipped into her pocket by the east.

Finally, I dare say the UK as a whole aren't in as bad a straights as Junker and his cadre of sycophants would have the press believing. Moreover, his recent comment to Merkel about May being in another universe must have rankled. It certainly bothered me and I'm an American! And why is he so chummy with Angela, anyway? Speaking of which, shouldn't Ms. Merkel be speaking face-to-face with Mrs. May, instead instead of through Junkers? I mean those two are the ones to hammer out the pain-points and leave is to the diplomats to pick up the pieces, right? Anyway, I really believe Merkel is going to play hardball with the UK and I, for one, hope you guys play it right back at her. And I hope your snap election gives her enough power to tell the Brexiters to jump in the lake if it comes to it because she will surely need everybody pulling for the team if she's not going to be rolled by the Germans.
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1405
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Monday, 01 May, 2017 - 21:51:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Hello John,

The UK will happily trade with any of the 180 countries world wide subject to terms and conditions.

Junker wants 50b up front before the talks start, we want to see the books first and maybe the EU owe us money. Junker also wants the Irish "problem" sorted out first. I see no problem, the actual physical border is soft but so what, potatoe smuggling is rife!.

Junker is born and bred on mainland Europe and thinks European where as we little Englanders are born and bred on an Island which is separated from Europe by the sea and most of us think Great Britain.

May is going to have to play hard ball with Juncker and Merkel. May does not need Sturgeon interfering. Sturgeon should be supporting May. All this arguing weakens Mays hand which is quite strong.
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John Beech
Grand Master
Username: jbeech

Post Number: 368
Registered: 10-2016
Posted on Tuesday, 02 May, 2017 - 04:41:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

I especially agree with Sturgeon holding off. To do otherwise borders on treachery against the interests of the UK as a whole. Especially considering the Scots just held a referendum on staying the course as part of the UK. That said, I also wish England were less highhanded. Wisdom recognizes the Union recently dodged a bullet, which calls for moving with alacrity to address Scottish grievances.
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Larry Kavanagh
Frequent User
Username: shadow_11

Post Number: 64
Registered: 5-2016
Posted on Tuesday, 02 May, 2017 - 08:58:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Surely you mean "potato" Robert, if one must attempt to insult the Irish one should at the very least get one's spelling correct!
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1406
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Tuesday, 02 May, 2017 - 23:02:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Larry,

it was meant as humour and no insult to to the Irish. My family is a mix of Irish Scottish Welsh and English. Most in the British Isles are like this.

It was a stab at those who think we should suddenly put barbed wire across Ireland and have check points.

The ROI has had talks with the Nordic countries Iceland and the Netherlands about trading as a little club (called Northern Lights) with the UK.

potato not potatoe

Also it looks like French exit is gaining momentum.
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Larry Kavanagh
Frequent User
Username: shadow_11

Post Number: 66
Registered: 5-2016
Posted on Wednesday, 03 May, 2017 - 07:17:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Robert,
The potato famine in Ireland where a quarter of the population starved to death and a further quarter were forced to emigrate is a sore subject, especially as the country was producing vast amounts of other agricultural produce that could have sustained the population had Britain not insisted on commandeering that food. Apology accepted nonetheless.
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Geoff Wootton
Grand Master
Username: dounraey

Post Number: 1695
Registered: 5-2012
Posted on Wednesday, 03 May, 2017 - 08:19:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Larry

I have never understood why there is such a thing as potato jokes. It's like joking about the Jewish Holocaust. There's nothing remotely funny about it. The repercussions of the disaster are still felt to this day.

Having said that I am sure Robert meant no offence and probably didn't realize the gravity of those events.

Geoff
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John Beech
Grand Master
Username: jbeech

Post Number: 372
Registered: 10-2016
Posted on Wednesday, 03 May, 2017 - 14:15:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Well, potato vs. potatoe 'is' funny if you're an American and recall Vice President Quayle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdqbi66oNuI

In any case, lighten up folks, please, because there's enough strife and hurt feelings around the world that we can do without here.
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1407
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Wednesday, 03 May, 2017 - 21:02:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

My humour was not meant as an insult to all those poor Irish people who starved to death. I didnt associate The Potato Blight with the border and should have used a different product such as Shamrocks.

I do apologize unreservedly for anybody upset.


Recently my son was given some sweets from Poland and my son quipped that they were potato favoured.
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Patrick Ryan
Grand Master
Username: patrick_r

Post Number: 1509
Registered: 4-2016
Posted on Thursday, 04 May, 2017 - 08:01:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

I seem to remember someone saying on this forum, that it is not a good thing to discuss politics or religion on a friendly car site.

It gets people upset.
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Chris Gillings
Prolific User
Username: chrisg

Post Number: 113
Registered: 4-2001
Posted on Thursday, 04 May, 2017 - 13:43:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

I've often heard said there are three things you never talk about in an army mess: politics, religion and women.

I'd say that's good general advice.
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Patrick Ryan
Grand Master
Username: patrick_r

Post Number: 1513
Registered: 4-2016
Posted on Thursday, 04 May, 2017 - 13:50:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Agreed.
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Patrick Lockyer.
Grand Master
Username: pat_lockyer

Post Number: 1313
Registered: 9-2004
Posted on Thursday, 04 May, 2017 - 16:12:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

I thought it was politics,religion and race.
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Patrick Ryan
Grand Master
Username: patrick_r

Post Number: 1514
Registered: 4-2016
Posted on Thursday, 04 May, 2017 - 18:38:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Hey Patrick

We love racing!!!
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Patrick Lockyer.
Grand Master
Username: pat_lockyer

Post Number: 1314
Registered: 9-2004
Posted on Thursday, 04 May, 2017 - 21:03:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Patrick in that case we need Sex and money!
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1408
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Thursday, 04 May, 2017 - 21:33:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

End of thread?
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Patrick Lockyer.
Grand Master
Username: pat_lockyer

Post Number: 1316
Registered: 9-2004
Posted on Friday, 05 May, 2017 - 02:26:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

I don't think so it has a self locking nut!
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1409
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Friday, 05 May, 2017 - 06:09:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

we could overtighten it, till it strips.
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Patrick Ryan
Grand Master
Username: patrick_r

Post Number: 1515
Registered: 4-2016
Posted on Friday, 05 May, 2017 - 07:42:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Racing, strips, sex, money. NOW we are getting interesting
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David Gore
Moderator
Username: david_gore

Post Number: 2553
Registered: 4-2003
Posted on Friday, 05 May, 2017 - 08:30:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Just shows we are normal after all..............
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1411
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Friday, 05 May, 2017 - 23:39:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

Its gone up from 50b to 100b.

Imagine that invoice dropping on the door mat.
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1413
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Saturday, 06 May, 2017 - 02:34:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

yesterday's local elections.
If this is an indication of the general election.

The Tories are gaining local stuff in Bonny Scotland.

I wonder what odds the bookies will give me on the Tories winning in Scotland.
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Larry Kavanagh
Frequent User
Username: shadow_11

Post Number: 67
Registered: 5-2016
Posted on Saturday, 06 May, 2017 - 07:40:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

I recall a local council election in my area when a particular candidate was generally regarded as the village idiot with no hope of being elected. A local bookie gave very generous odds on him and the smart punters took the price and then selected the unworthy candidate on the ballot paper. The idiot was elected by a narrow margin and the bookie was virtually cleaned out. That bookie vowed never to become involved in betting on local elections again. Any bet where the punter can have some level of involvement in the result is a dangerous bet for a bookie.
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Robert Noel Reddington
Grand Master
Username: bob_uk

Post Number: 1414
Registered: 5-2015
Posted on Saturday, 06 May, 2017 - 22:28:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IP

That's clever.

we have mentioned sex women money politics gambling cars racing.

We are a load of windbags.