| Author | Message | ||
     Vladimir Ivanovich Kirillov Grand Master Username: soviet Post Number: 669 Registered: 2-2013 |
I admit to having very little knowledge of the international currency fluctuation science. However, the Aussie dollar appears to have a lot in common with a yoyo. As I understand what happens is that when the Oz dollar starts to look like getting parity with the greenback our Reserve Bank spends hideous amounts to reduce the Oz dollar value. Any comments?? | ||
| Geoff Wootton Grand Master Username: dounraey Post Number: 1576 Registered: 5-2012 |
Hi Vladimir I wouldn't call it a science. More an art. It is really difficult to predict currency movements. I have to disagree with you on Aussie/greenback parity - this hasn't been the case for about 4 years now. The Aussie is currently trading at around 75 cents to the US dollar. You are right though, central banks will intervene with massive amounts to stabilize their currencies. If I lived in Australia I would trade currencies on the internet. The ideal time for short term currency trading is during the hours GMT 0800 - 1200. This is the time of greatest price movement. Ideal for momentum trading. Australia is well positioned for this as 0800 - 1200 GMT corresponds to early evening. In the US you're working the night shift  Geoff | ||
| Vladimir Ivanovich Kirillov Grand Master Username: soviet Post Number: 671 Registered: 2-2013 |
Geoff not interested in gambling on currency but just wonder if I should delay my next US purchase on account of the Trump situation. The way I see it is the wall and the extreme right wing social policies plus his yap about fixing the drug problem will severely deplete the US treasury. He is already to do the military build up two step. All these things hopefully plus a stack of social unrest amongst Americas poor should send the greenback south for a while which will save me loot. Oh and yes then there is the south China Sea squabble in which the Chinese have no intention of tolerating. Good old Trumpy now has trillions of US taxpayers dollars loot to croak so I have my figures crossed because I really need that 1956 Packard. Its all speculative of course but I can't see Oz continuing to support any more of Uncle Sam's military adventures especially after the Iraq messup and the Afghanistan situation becoming nothing less worse than the Vietnam disaster. | ||
| Geoff Wootton Grand Master Username: dounraey Post Number: 1577 Registered: 5-2012 |
Hi Vladimir You disappoint me, I thought you would be a raging gambler. Your reputation is in tatters. I would go ahead with any US purchases. I don't think the markets are too concerned at the moment. When the markets get really worried the gold price increases. Currently gold prices are still going down. It's quite interesting to look at the chart. Before the 2008 financial crash it was around $800 (per oz). By 2012 it had doubled to $1600. It has since been falling and is now at around $1200. The funniest thing is the British Chancellor Gordon Brown sold off half the UK gold reserves from 1999 - 2002 when gold was at a 20 year low of $280. What an idiot. (BTW I'm not mocking the English, I'm from the UK myself. We have to put up with this nonsense) Geoff | ||
| Omar M. Shams Grand Master Username: omar Post Number: 1019 Registered: 4-2009 |
Me and politics dont work too well. however i feel the currency markets will be affected by the new US president but perhaps slowly. I feel the long term decline of the US dollar is inevitable but in tiny small percentages every week. If you look at the US dollar in 6 months or a year's time you will probably see a gradual decline. The big questions is this - will all the other world currencies that are pegged to the US Dollar change their peg to a different currency? that is the big question. | ||
| Geoff Wootton Grand Master Username: dounraey Post Number: 1578 Registered: 5-2012 |
My prediction for the next year is the dollar will strengthen significantly and keep it's status as the global reserve currency. This because the US will have lower energy prices, an increase in the manufacturing base and a lowering of various taxes. All of this will come at a high price to the environment with a big hit on social policy. This all presupposes there will not be international crises caused by Trump's foreign policies - I'm thinking in particular regard to China. With the Euro failing, Brexit, possible disintegration of the EU and the Trump presidency we are going to be living in interesting times. | ||
| Vladimir Ivanovich Kirillov Grand Master Username: soviet Post Number: 674 Registered: 2-2013 |
I say this idle chatter has some bloody juicy meat on it what what! | ||
| michael vass Prolific User Username: mikebentleyturbo2 Post Number: 276 Registered: 7-2015 |
Yeh and I wish it would stop yoyoing , I'm trying to judge when to buy some for my imminent trip and it keeps going the wrong way grrr Mike |
